Does Flash have a future?
January 31st, 2010 by admin
There is a debate raging in the rich UX industry right now about the future, or lack of one, for Flash. Personally, in 12 years of major agency work in this industry I’ve never seen anything quite like it. The arguments vary from glee-filled ranting predictions of the death of Flash to postured futures where the AS language and associated tools are used to publish native applications to the various platforms, and occasionally calm, balanced and objective opinions. The latter appear to be quite rare tho, unfortunately.
The debates circle around separate but inextricably linked subjects:
- Apple’s anti-Flash stance and the lack of Flash on the iPad
- HTML5 vs Flash
- Flash’s future: plug-in or native
Below are a selection of highlights. It’s always a good idea with these to assess the biases as best you can, (some of these guys are from Adobe, some wear their anti-Flash leanings like a badge, but some are harder to spot, either way).
John Gruber on Apple’s distaste for Flash
Aral Balkan on his view of a native apps future for the Flash tools
A debate at a Flash user group between Aral and Mark Doherty of Adobe
Lee Brimelow attacking the lack of Flash on the iPad, while simultaneously apologising for a slightly risque post on his blog…
Steve Jobs makes his views abundantly clear at an Apple Town Hall meeting
John Nack of Adobe with a something approaching reasonabless
Ryan Stewart, again from Adobe, with a pageful posts on Flash, iPad & HTML5
TUAW, an Apple blog, on Adobe’s reaction to the lack of Flash on the iPad
Adobe Flash blog puts their case on a number of issues, (somewhat less clumsily than some of their evangelists personal blogs)
I read that Grant Skinner is preparing a post on this subject. I’m expecting him to see some kind of positive future for Flash, given his vast experience and celebrity in the Flash community, but it will be interesting to see whether he puts his faith in Adobe’s vision of a future for the plug-in or something more like Aral’s (and others) vision of a future where we publish native apps developed with Flash.
I would expect the Silverlight community to be watching this debate closely, because really Adobe are representing the proprietary plug-in based future, and that includes Silverlight. If Flash falls, you’d have to expect Silverlight to fall with it. Personally I’ve acheived a lot of things with Flash, but I’m in now way tied to it. When Director was clearly going to be usurped by Flash a few people I know clung on to it with white knuckles and left themseves with a lot of catching up to do – there’s a lesson in objectivity if ever you needed one. One thing feels clear – Adobe are not happy people at the moment, the fear is almost tangible.
I’m preparing an entry on my own thoughts as to what the future of rich UX is, but to be honest there are so many variables involved when you look at the bigger picture that although I’ve written a fair bit, I have yet to reach a conclusion. In the meantime, all I can do is keep reading, learning, and sifting thru the information – same as everyone else.
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- Posted in Adobe, Apple, Future of UX
